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Empirical

8 runs in the Betfair files · 12 Dec 2025 – 18 Sep 2026 · Betfair selection ID 83991154

3/8qualifying runs that traded at ½ BSP or lower
38%DOB rate
3wins
0/5beaten runs that still hit ½
3/8Flat runs that hit ½ BSP
A small sample: 8 qualifying runs. One horse's past runs say little about the next one, and conditions, trip and jockey change from race to race.

Every run

DateCourseRaceBSPIn-play lowLow ÷ BSPResultDOBSource
18 Sep 2026 17:50Newbury1m2f Hcap3.951.0126%WonDOBCSV
26 Aug 2026 19:30Newbury1m2f Hcap4.403.2574%LostNoCSV
27 Jul 2026 16:15Ayr1m2f Hcap4.251.0124%WonDOBCSV
2 Jul 2026 16:05Nottingham1m Hcap2.441.0141%WonDOBCSV
9 May 2026 14:50Nottingham1m Hcap7.197.0097%LostNoCSV
28 Jan 2026 19:00Kempton1m Mdn Stks22.0065.00>100%LostNoCSV
27 Dec 2025 18:00Wolverhampton1m Nov Stks42.7842.0098%LostNoCSV
12 Dec 2025 18:00Southwell7f Mdn Stks4.205.60>100%LostNoCSV

“n/a” = BSP under 2.02 or no in-play trade recorded, so the run doesn't count towards the rate. “Low ÷ BSP” is the in-play low as a percentage of BSP.

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Each week: which courses, race types and horses traded at half their BSP in-running, straight from Betfair's own files. Numbers, not tips.